Research

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Refereed Journal Papers

Nakagawa Y., Arai R., Kotani K., Nagano, M., and Saijo, T. (2019), “An Intergenerational Retrospective Viewpoint Promotes Financially Sustainable Attitudes,” Futures 114, 102454. [website, external link] 
The working paper version is here [external link, PDF format]. 

Arai, R., Naito, K., and Ono, T., (2018), “Intergenerational Policies, Public Debt, and Economic Growth: A Politico-economic analysis”, Journal of Public Economics, Vol. 166, pp.39-52. [website, external link]
The working paper version is here [external link, PDF format].
An earlier version: This paper is a merged version of Arai R. and Naito, K. (2014) and Ono (2015). 

Arai, R. and Nakazawa, M. (2014), “A Numerical Analysis of Japan’s Fiscal Sustainability in a Simple OLG Model”, Applied Economics Letters, Vol.21, pp.1194-1197. [website, external link]
The working paper version is here [PDF format] (Updated in 2014.06.16.)

Arai, R. and Ueda, J. (2013), “A Numerical Evaluation of the Sustainable Size of the Primary Deficit in Japan”, Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Vol.30, pp. 59-75. [website, external link]
The revised version is here [PDF format] (Updated in 2013.10.05.)，KIER DP version, PRI DP version 

Arai, R. (2011), “Productive Government Expenditure and Fiscal Sustainability”, FinanzArchiv (Public Finance Analysis), Vol. 67, No. 4, pp. 327-351. [website, external link]
The revised version is here [PDF format]. (Updated in 2011.09.18.)

Non-Refereed Journal Papers

Arai, R. (2015), “Determination of Public Debt Policy through Political Processes”, Public Choice Studies, Vol. 64, pp.119-134 (in Japanese). [website, external link (in Japanese)]

Ishikawa, D., Nakagawa, M., Nakazawa, M., Arai R. and Ueda J. (2014), “Structure of a Multi-Sector OLG Model in an Open Economy and its Simulation Results for Japan — a Quantitative Analysis of Japan’s Accelerating Demographic Change on the Economic Structure in the Coming Decades”, Financial Review, Vol.117, pp. 96-120 (in Japanese). [website, external link (in Japanese)]

Working Papers

Arai, R. and Okazawa, R. (2023), “Is It Advantageous to Be First? Evidence from a TV Comedy Program,” SSRN working paper No.4578782. [external link]

Arai, R., Kunieda, T., and Nishida, K. (2014), “Is Public Debt Growth-Enhancing or Growth-Reducing?”, KIER Discussion Paper No.884, Kyoto University. [external link, PDF format]
An earlier version: Arai R., Kunieda T., and Nishida K. (2013), “Is Public Debt Growth-Enhancing or Growth-Reducing?”, Department of Economics and Finance Working Paper No.2012037, City University of Hong Kong. [external link, PDF format]

Ishikawa, D., Ueda, J., and Arai, R. (2012), “Future Changes of the Industrial Structure due to Aging and Soaring Demands for Health Care Services in Japan — an Analysis Using a Multi-Sector OLG Model in an Open Economy”, PRI Discussion Paper Series No.12A-14, Ministry of Finance Japan. [external link, PDF format]

Arai, R. and Kunieda, T. (2011), “Sustainability of Fiscal Policy Rules and Credit Constraints: Theory and Evidence”, Department of Economics and Finance Working Paper No.2011001, City University of Hong Kong. [external link, PDF format]
An earlier version: Arai R. and Kunieda T. (2010), “Sustainable Public Debt, Credit Constraints, and Social Welfare “, KIER Discussion Paper No.732, Kyoto University. [external link, PDF format]

Reports

2012, “Sophistication and Expansion of Macroeconometrics Models and Long-run Simulations of Public Finance and Macroeconomics”, Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University (in Japanese).
[I coauthor Chapter 5, “Future Changes of the Industrial Structure due to Aging and Soaring Demands for Health Care Services in Japan — an Analysis Using a Multi-Sector OLG Model in an Open Economy” with Ishikawa, D., J. Ueda and R. Arai,
and Chapter 6, “An Numerical Analysis on Maximum Sustainable Size of Primary Deficits in Japan” with Arai, R. and J. Ueda.]

2011, “Sophistication and Expansion of Macroeconometrics Models for Prediction of Public Finance and Economy”, Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University (in Japanese).
[I coauthor Chapter 9, “Simulation in an Overlapping Generations Model” with Ueda J., D. Ishikawa, R. Arai, and R. Ishida.]

Other Articles

Arai, R. and Nakagawa, Y. (2018), “Future Design on National and Regional Public Finance,” Trends in the Sciences, Vol. 23(6), pp.38-41 (in Japanese).

Grants

Principal Investigator (KAKENHI, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research in Japan)
  • Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C) (Apr.2022-Mar.2025), Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS).
    Proposal on “Interaction between the BoJ’s JGB Underwriting Behavior and Japan’s Fiscal and Macroeconomic Performance” (No.22K01543).
  • Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C) (Apr.2018-Mar.2021), Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS).
    Proposal on “Revealing Effects of a Decrease in Public Debt through Debt Crisis on a Macroeconomy, Taking Inter-generational Heterogeneity into Consideration” (No.18K01658).
  • Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B) (Apr.2015-Mar.2018), Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS).
    Proposal on “Elucidation of the decision mechanism of public debt policy through a political process” (No.15K17018).
  • Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B) (Apr.2011-Mar.2014), Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS).
    Proposal on “Numerical Analysis on Fiscal Sustainability in Japan” (No.23730298).
Principal Investigator (other grants)
  • International Joint Research Center of Advanced Economic Theory, project research (Apr.2023-Mar.2024), Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University.
    Proposal on “Impact of Fiscal Policy and Reforms to Avoid Fiscal Crisis on the Japanese
    Economy.”
  • The Nitto Foundation Grant-in-Aid (Sep.2020-Mar.2022), the Nitto Foundation.
    Proposal on “Reducing Government Debt Outstandings and Their Impact on the Japanese Economy under the Situation where Fiscal Balance Improvement Is Not Fully Achieved.”
  • International Joint Research Center of Advanced Economic Theory, project research (2012, 2014, 2016-2018, 2020-2022), Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University.
  • Kyoto Erasmus Program Grant-in-Aid for Participation in International Conferences (Apr.2011), Kyoto University.
  • Kyoto University Startup Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (Oct.2010-Mar.2011), Kyoto University．
    Proposal on “Numerical Analysis on Fiscal Sustainability in Japan”.
Co-Investigator
  • Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B) (Apr.2022-Mar.2026), Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS), No.22H00841, PI: Tamai Toshiki (Nagoya University).
  • Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A) (Apr.2018-Mar.2023), Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS), No.18H03636, PI: Takii Katsuya (Osaka University).
  • International Joint Research Center of Advanced Economic Theory, project research (2013-2021), Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University.
  • Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A) (Apr.2013-Mar.2018), Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS), No.25245040, PI: Takii Katsuya (Osaka University).

Referee Activity

Journal of Japanese and International Economies, Economic Modelling, International Tax and Public Finance, International Journal of Economic Theory, Japanese Economic Review, Journal of Economics, Journal of Public Economics, Singapore Economic Review