Research

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Refereed Journal Papers

Nakagawa Y., Arai R., Kotani K., Nagano, M., and Saijo, T. (2019), “An Intergenerational Retrospective Viewpoint Promotes Financially Sustainable Attitudes,” Futures 114, 102454. [website, external link] (free download until  Nov.22, 2019)
The working paper version is here [external link, PDF format]. 

Arai, R., Naito, K., and Ono, T., (2018), “Intergenerational Policies, Public Debt, and Economic Growth: A Politico-economic analysis”, Journal of Public Economics, Vol. 166, pp.39-52. [website, external link]
The working paper version is here [external link, PDF format].
An earlier version: This paper is a merged version of Arai R. and Naito, K. (2014) and Ono (2015)

Arai, R. and Nakazawa, M. (2014), “A Numerical Analysis of Japan’s Fiscal Sustainability in a Simple OLG Model”, Applied Economics Letters, Vol.21, pp.1194-1197. [website, external link]
The working paper version is here [PDF format] (Updated in 2014.06.16.)

Arai, R. and Ueda, J. (2013), “A Numerical Evaluation of the Sustainable Size of the Primary Deficit in Japan”, Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Vol.30, pp. 59-75. [website, external link]
The revised version is here [PDF format] (Updated in 2013.10.05.),KIER DP versionPRI DP version 

Arai, R. (2011), “Productive Government Expenditure and Fiscal Sustainability”, FinanzArchiv (Public Finance Analysis), Vol. 67, No. 4, pp. 327-351. [website, external link]
The revised version is here [PDF format]. (Updated in 2011.09.18.)

 

Non-Refereed Journal Papers

Arai, R. (2015), “Determination of Public Debt Policy through Political Processes”, Public Choice Studies, Vol. 64, pp.119-134 (in Japanese). [website, external link (in Japanese)]

Ishikawa, D., Nakagawa, M., Nakazawa, M., Arai R. and Ueda J. (2014), “Structure of a Multi-Sector OLG Model in an Open Economy and its Simulation Results for Japan — a Quantitative Analysis of Japan’s Accelerating Demographic Change on the Economic Structure in the Coming Decades”, Financial Review, Vol.117, pp. 96-120 (in Japanese). [website, external link (in Japanese)]

 

Working Papers

Arai, R., Kunieda, T., and Nishida, K. (2014), “Is Public Debt Growth-Enhancing or Growth-Reducing?”, KIER Discussion Paper No.884, Kyoto University. [external link, PDF format]
An earlier version: Arai R., Kunieda T., and Nishida K. (2013), “Is Public Debt Growth-Enhancing or Growth-Reducing?”, Department of Economics and Finance Working Paper No.2012037, City University of Hong Kong. [external link, PDF format]

Ishikawa, D., Ueda, J., and Arai, R. (2012), “Future Changes of the Industrial Structure due to Aging and Soaring Demands for Health Care Services in Japan — an Analysis Using a Multi-Sector OLG Model in an Open Economy”, PRI Discussion Paper Series No.12A-14, Ministry of Finance Japan. [external link, PDF format]

Arai, R. and Kunieda, T. (2011), “Sustainability of Fiscal Policy Rules and Credit Constraints: Theory and Evidence”, Department of Economics and Finance Working Paper No.2011001, City University of Hong Kong. [external link, PDF format]
An earlier version: Arai R. and Kunieda T. (2010), “Sustainable Public Debt, Credit Constraints, and Social Welfare “, KIER Discussion Paper No.732, Kyoto University. [external link, PDF format]

 

Presentations (selected)

Mar.2018, “Public Debt Policy in a Political Economy”, The 55th Annual Meeting of the Public Choice Society, Francis Marion Hotel, Charleston, SC, US.
Jan. 2018, “A Future Design on Central and Regional Public Finance”, The 1st Future Design Workshop, Research Institute for Humanity and Nature, Kyoto, Japan.
Jan. 2018, “Intergenerational Conflict over Fiscal Consolidation: Theory and Evidence from Japan”,OAP-PRI Economics Workshop Series–Bank, Corporate and Sovereign Debt, PRI, Ministry of Finance, Tokyo, Japan.
Nov. 2017, “Public Debt Policy in a Political Economy”, 2017 the Japan Public Choice Society Meeting, Kwansei Gakuin University, Hyogo, Japan.
Sep. 2016, “Public Debt Policy in a Political Economy”, Japanese Institute of Public Finance 2016 Annual Conference, Kyoto Sangyo University, Kyoto, Japan.
Jun.2014, “A Politico-economic Approach on Public Debt in an Endogenous Growth Economy”,
    2014 Public Economics Workshop, Hitotsubashi University, Japan.
Mar.2014, “A Numerical Analysis of Japan’s Fiscal Sustainability in a Simple OLG Model”,
    SMU-NTU-HUE-HU International Conference on Economics and Econometrics, Hiroshima University, Japan.
Nov.2013, “A Politico-economic Approach on Public Debt in an Endogenous Growth Economy”,
    2013 the Japan Public Choice Society Meeting, Komazawa University, Japan.
Aug.2013, “A Numerical Evaluation on a Sustainable Size of Primary Deficit in Japan”,
    The 69th Annual Congress of the International Institute of Public Finance, Hotel Villa Diodoro, Italy.
Aug.2013, “Is Public Debt Growth-Enhancing or Growth-Reducing?”,
    Singapore Economic Review Conference 2013, Mandarin Orchard Singapore, Singapore.
Mar.2013, “Is Public Debt Growth-Enhancing or Growth-Reducing?”,
    Joint NTU-Hiroshima Workshop, Nangyan Technological University, Singapore.
Mar.2013, “A Numerical Evaluation on a Sustainable Size of Primary Deficit in Japan”,
    Western Economic Association International 10th Biennial Pacific Rim Conference,Keio University, Japan.
Oct.2012, “A Numerical Evaluation on a Sustainable Size of Primary Deficit in Japan”,
    Japanese Institute of Public Finance 2012 Annual Conference,Awaji Yumebutai International Conference Center, Hyogo, Japan.
Oct.2012, “A Numerical Evaluation on a Sustainable Size of Primary Deficit in Japan”,
    2012 Japanese Economic Association Autumn Meeting (Oral Session),Kyushu Sangyo University, Fukuoka, Japan.
Mar.2012, “A Numerical Evaluation on Sustainable Size of Primary Deficit in Japan”,
    Seminar on “Sophistication and Expansion of Marcoeconometrics Models and Long-run Simulations of Public Finance and Macroeconomics”, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan.
Apr.2011, “Sustainable Public Debt, Credit Constraints, and Social Welfare”,
    Royal Economic Society 2011 Annual Conference,Royal Holloway, University of London, UK.
Sep.2010, “Sustainable Public Debt, Credit Constraints, and Social Welfare”,
    2010 Japanese Economic Association Autumn Meeting (Oral Session), Kwansei Gakuin University, Hyogo, Japan.
Jun.2009, “Productive Government Expenditure and Fiscal Sustainability”,
    2009 Japanese Economic Association Spring Meeting (Oral Session), Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan.

Reports

2012, “Sophistication and Expansion of Macroeconometrics Models and Long-run Simulations of Public Finance and Macroeconomics”, Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University (in Japanese).
[I coauthor Chapter 5, “Future Changes of the Industrial Structure due to Aging and Soaring Demands for Health Care Services in Japan — an Analysis Using a Multi-Sector OLG Model in an Open Economy” with Ishikawa, D., J. Ueda and R. Arai,
and Chapter 6, “An Numerical Analysis on Maximum Sustainable Size of Primary Deficits in Japan” with Arai, R. and J. Ueda.]

2011, “Sophistication and Expansion of Macroeconometrics Models for Prediction of Public Finance and Economy”, Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University (in Japanese).
[I coauthor Chapter 9, “Simulation in an Overlapping Generations Model” with Ueda J., D. Ishikawa, R. Arai, and R. Ishida.]

 

Grants

Principal Investigator (KAKENHI, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research in Japan)
  • Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C) (Apr.2018-Mar.2021), Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS).
    Proposal on “Revealing Effects of a Decrease in Public Debt through Debt Crisis on a Macroeconomy, Taking Inter-generational Heterogeneity into Consideration” (No.18K01658).
  • Grand-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B) (Apr.2015-Mar.2018), Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS).
    Proposal on “Elucidation of the decision mechanism of public debt policy through a political process” (No.15K17018).
  • Grand-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B) (Apr.2011-Mar.2014), Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS).
    Proposal on “Numerical Analysis on Fiscal Sustainability in Japan” (No.23730298).
Principal Investigator (other grants)
  • International Joint Research Center of Advanced Economic Theory, project research (Apr.2018-Mar.2019), Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University.
    Proposal on “Microdata and DSGE Analysis of Fiscal Policy Effects on the Japanese Economy under a Falling Birthrate and an Aging Population, Taking into Consideration Inter-generational Heterogeneity”, Co-PI: Kojima, D.(Kyoto University), Nakazawa, M. (Ministry of Finance), Ohno, T. (Shinshu University), Miyoshi, K. (Aichi Gakuin University), Hori, K. (Ryukyu University), and Kotera, G. (Toyama University).
  • International Joint Research Center of Advanced Economic Theory, project research (Apr.2017-Mar.2018), Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University.
    Proposal on “Revealing Effects of the Growth Strategy and Fiscal Reconstruction on Japanese Macroeconomy by using DSGE models and Micro data”, Co-PI: Kojima, D.(Kyoto University), Nakazawa, M. (Ministry of Finance), Ohno, T. (Shinshu University), Miyoshi, K. (Aichi Gakuin University), Tamai, T. (Nagoya University), and Hori, K. (Ryukyu University).
  • International Joint Research Center of Advanced Economic Theory, project research (Apr.2016-Mar.2017), Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University.
    Proposal on “Empirical and Theoretical Studies of Effects of Recent Fiscal Reforms on Future Fiscal Stance and Macroeconomy in Japan”, Co-PI: Kojima, D.(Kyoto University), Nakazawa, M. (Ministry of Finance), Ohno, T. (Shinshu University), Miyoshi, K. (Aichi Gakuin University), Tamai, T. (Kinki University), and Hori, K. (Ryukyu University).
  • International Joint Research Center of Advanced Economic Theory, project research (Apr.2014-Mar.2015), Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University.
    Proposal on “Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis of Effects of Japan’s Fiscal Consolidation on the Macroeconomy”, Co-PI: Masahiko Nakazawa (Kyoto University), Kazuki Hiraga (Tokai University), Katsuhiko Hori (Tezukayama University), and Atsumasa Kondo (ESRI).
  • International Joint Research Center of Advanced Economic Theory, project research (Apr.2012-Mar.2013), Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University.
    Proposal on “Numerical Analysis on Fiscal Sustainability in Japan”, Co-PI: Masahiko Nakazawa (Kyoto University) and Katsuhiko Hori (Tezukayama University).
  • Kyoto Erasmus Program Grant-in-Aid for Participation in International Conferences (Apr.2011), Kyoto University.
  • Kyoto University Startup Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (Oct.2010-Mar.2011), Kyoto University.
    Proposal on “Numerical Analysis on Fiscal Sustainability in Japan”.
Co-Investigator
  • International Joint Research Center of Advanced Economic Theory, project research (Apr.2016-Mar.2018), Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University.
    Proposal on “Economic Analysis on Globalization and Uncertainty”, PI: Asano Takao (Okayama University).
  • International Joint Research Center of Advanced Economic Theory, project research (Apr.2015-Mar.2016), Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University.
    Proposal on “Quantitative Analysis of Effects of Public Finance Reforms on Household’s Tax Burden and Macroeconomy”, PI: Ohno Taro (Onomichi City  University).
  • Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A) (Apr.2013-Mar.2018), Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS).
    Proposal on “The Market for Japanese Learders: the Education, Screening and Governance System in Japan” (No.25245040), PI: Takii Katsuya (Osaka University).
  • International Joint Research Center of Advanced Economic Theory, project research (Apr.2013-Mar.2014), Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University.
    Proposal on “Effects of Uncertainty on Asset Prices and Asset Accumulation”, PI: Asano Takao (Okayama University).

Referee Activity

Journal of Public Economics, Journal of Economics, Singapore Economic Review, Economic Modelling

 

Discussant and Chair

Discussant
Jun. 2017, Shioji, E., “Extracting Fiscal Policy Expectations from a Cross Section of Daily Stock Returns”,
2017 Japanese Economic Association Spring Meeting, Ritsumeikan University, Japan.
Oct.2014, Ikeda, R., “An Increase in Consumption Tax and Frictional Unemployment”,
    Japanese Institute of Public Finance 2014 Annual Conference, Chokyo University, Aichi, Japan.
Jun.2014, Ko, J.H., “Fiscal Sustainability and Regime Shifts in Japan”,
    2014 Japanese Economic Association Spring Meeting, Doshisha University, Japan.
Nov.2013, Mizuno, N., “Political Structure as a Legacy of Indirect Colonial Rule: Bargaining between National Governments and Rural Elites in Africa”,
    2013 the Japan Public Choice Society Meeting, Komazawa University, Japan.
Aug.2013, Hou, Y., “A Rule-based Time-consistent Path of Debt Use for Subnational Governments”,
    The 69th Annual Congress of the International Institute of Public Finance, Hotel Villa Diodoro, Italy.
Jul.2013, Yamada, J., “Fiscal Consolidation and Intergenerational Inequality in Japan”,
    The Ninth Annual Conference of the Asia-Pacific Economic Association, Osaka University, Japan.
Chair
Jul.2013, (Chair) session 6C, “Open economy and Regional Integration”,
    The Ninth Annual Conference of the Asia-Pacific Economic Association, Osaka University, Japan.

 

Organizer

  • Sep.2014, Organizer: “Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomics” Workshop, Kyoto University.
    [Co-Organizer: Masahiko Nakazawa (Kyoto University)].
  • Feb.2013, Organizer: “Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomics” Workshop, Kyoto University.
    [Co-Organizer: Masahiko Nakazawa (Kyoto University)].
  • Dec.2012, Local organizer: DSGE Conference 2012, Hiroshima University.
    [Organizers: Kengo Nutahara (Senshu University), Masaru Inaba (Kansai University), and Kazuki Hiraga (Keio University)].